假期閱讀了美聯儲理事Waller和Cook的演講稿，很遺憾，依然沒有看到對于政策緊縮松口的措辭。

(資料圖片僅供參考)

Waller的觀點很重要，因為他是美聯儲內部堅持認定美國經濟將實現「軟著陸」的理事，此前更是斷言「衰退論」已經被證偽。目前筆者覆蓋每一次Waller的公開表態和演講——觀察他的態度轉變實際上也就大致可以捕捉到美國經濟的微妙變化。簡言之，如果Waller哪天口風變了，那說明他心中的軟著陸可能實現不了。

Cook的觀點亦很重要，因為她是剛剛被拜登提名的新理事，也是史上第一位進入聯儲理事會的非裔美國女性。最近她在PIIE的表態是她作為聯儲理事的首次公開亮相。最近有許多小伙伴問起美聯儲是否會在臨近中期選舉時受到來自MZ黨的「政治壓力」，我們看看Lisa Cook的表態就可以一探究竟。

Waller的看法

話不多說，直接上原文解析。

This is not the inflation outcome I am looking for to support a slower pace of rate hikes or a lower terminal policy rate than projected in the September 2022 SEP. And, though there are additional data to come, in my view, we haven"t yet made meaningful progress on inflation and until that progress is both meaningful and persistent, I support continued rate increases, along with ongoing reductions in the Fed"s balance sheet, to help restrain aggregate demand. As far as achieving our dual mandate, this is a one-sided battle. We currently do not face a tradeoff between our employment objective and our inflation objective, so monetary policy can and must be used aggressively to bring down inflation.

很直接地表達了目前的通脹數據不足以放緩加息的速度，也不足以下調終端利率——目前抗擊通脹未取得實質性進展。最關鍵的是，Waller提到聯儲目前的雙重使命實質是單邊戰——抗擊通脹是至高目標。并且通脹目標和就業目標目前根本不存在取舍問題（9月非農依然強勁），所以貨幣政策必須保持激進加息來遏制通脹。

As I mentioned earlier, rent growth has been very high recently. The housing services component of the PCE price index rose a bit above 0.7 percent in August, which was slightly above the previous three-month average. And I expect a similar pace to continue for a while, well into next year. Why? Shelter inflation measures the rents actually paid by households. Only a fraction of households sign a new lease in a given month or renew their lease each month. So, when monthly shelter inflation is calculated, it includes a large share of homes under lease where rents did not change. As a result, changes in market conditions show up in the inflation statistics only over a period of several months. In addition, the inflation statistics use a six-month average when calculating rent growth. Asking rents and rents on new lease contracts—which do reflect contemporaneous rental market conditions—have been rising at a fast pace for more than a year. These increases have fueled shelter inflation so far this year, and they should continue to do so for at least the next six months. That said, there is a glimmer of hope in the most recent readings of asking rents, where the rate of increase has stepped down a bit. This slower pace should eventually contribute to a slowdown in shelter inflation, although that might not be seen until later next year.

這一段，Waller提到了房租市場的通脹壓力，目前美國的高通脹壓力來源中，核心通脹的房租價格貢獻較高，大家都在寄望于房租通脹回落。可Waller預計房租壓力會持續到明年，因為租金增速的計算是以六個月的平均值為準的，且很多租約的價格是固定的。換言之，來自房租的核心通脹壓力會持續至明年。

I don"t think that this extent of data is likely to be sufficient to significantly alter my view of the economy, and I expect most policymakers will feel the same way. I imagine we will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting.

如果你想要觀察聯儲對加息幅度的考量，毫無疑問應該關注11月的議息會議，而在11月初以前的數據都不足以實質性改變Waller（和聯儲官員）對經濟的看法。

In considering what might happen to alter my expectations about the path of policy, I"ve read some speculation recently that financial stability concerns could possibly lead the FOMC to slow rate increases or halt them earlier than expected. Let me be clear that this is not something I"m considering or believe to be a very likely development.

另外，最近有很多聲音提到「金融穩定風險」會使得聯儲提早放緩或終止加息，但Waller斬釘截鐵地否認了。

Cook的觀點

我們再來看看Cook的首次亮相，很多措辭可以說是極端鷹派了……

In the current situation, with risks to inflation forecasts skewed to the upside, I believe policy judgments must be based on whether and when we see inflation actually falling in the data, rather than just in forecasts. Although most forecasts see considerable progress on inflation in coming years, it is important to consider whether inflation dynamics may have changed in a persistent way, making our forecasts even more uncertain.

這里Cook傳達的信號是聯儲目前的施政并不基于「數據預測」而是「實際數據」——預期通脹下降不足以讓聯儲轉向，聯儲必須看到通脹實質性的回落。且給通脹測頂沒太大意義，因為「需要考慮通脹動態已經實質性地改變了」，所以「我們的預測具有很大的不確定性」。

In our current economy, with a very strong labor market and inflation far above our goal, I believe a risk-management approach requires a strong focus on taming inflation. Inflation poses both a near- and long-term threat. Aside from the immediate effect of higher prices on households and businesses, the longer it persists and the more people come to expect it, the greater the risks of elevated inflation becoming entrenched. I think it is critical that we prevent an inflationary psychology from taking hold. This is not simply an abstract concept, but a risk I take seriously based on personal experience. My time doing dissertation research in Russia in the mid-1990s taught me just how disruptive and painful an extremely high-inflation environment can be.

市場非常熱衷于拿聯儲的「risk-management」一詞做文章，認為提及「風險管理」就意味著聯儲開始思考經濟下行的風險——這是無稽之談。目前的風險管理仍然針對的是抗擊通脹，以防通脹變得積重難返。此處Cook提及筆者非常重視的一點，即通脹的傷害可不是「抽象的概念」。很多經濟學者在談論通脹時僅僅把其視為聯儲的通脹目標和一個可以玩弄的數字，完全沒有將它視為底層收入群體實際面對的生活成本提高的痛楚，是脫離實際的。

編輯/ping